Why Skepticism Can Backfire: Modeling Misinformation as a Gatekeeper–Trust Spiral

Abstract

Why do skepticism-oriented anti-misinformation strategies sometimes deepen distrust rather than stabilize public knowledge? I argue that threat-framed misinformation often functions less like a discrete content error and more like an epistemic attitude—an orientation of suspicious vigilance toward institutions in environments of uncertainty. The Gatekeeper–Trust Spiral (GTS) models this: when trust in vetted gatekeepers (γ) drops below a threshold γ*, the prevalence of vigilant suspicion (β) becomes self-reinforcing, amplified by anxiety and high-throughput media ecologies. The model yields testable qualitative expectations: β surges most sharply in low-γ, high-anxiety settings; trust-building inputs suppress β more reliably than exposure reduction; and the β–γ coupling predicts characteristic intervention failures. The practical upshot is a shift from “boost skepticism” toward wise dependence—calibrated epistemic reliance on transparent, error-correcting institutions—supported by simple classroom routines that treat reliability and track record as evidence.