

Ciclo "Modelli matematici di epidemie" organizzato dal Laboratorio EPIMAT (Epidemiologia Matematica), laboratorio congiunto tra Dipartimento di Matematica e FBK
The global spread of dengue is increasingly influenced by human mobility, as travel patterns connect endemic and non-endemic regions. In this talk, I will present a mathematical modelling framework that quantifies dengue imports from the endemic areas into non-endemic regions, specifically Europe and the USA. The model integrates several essential parameters, including mobility patterns driven by geographic proximity and population size, dengue incidence rates, duration of stay in dengue-endemic areas, and probability of traveling while infected, to estimate the dengue importations in space and time. We identify and map the spatial and temporal patterns of high dengue importation and exportation areas and validate the model predictions with observed data. This research enhances understanding of the intersection between climate change, global mobility, and infectious disease transmission, offering a vital tool for epidemic preparedness and public health planning.